Our Best Recent Market Calls – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Fed Rate Hikes, CPI, ARKK, Mega-caps

In the last 60 days, I have pre-alerted our subscribers to the following major moves.

Pre-alerted, in that that I told our subscribers to expect these moves, before they occurred. All are outlined in great detail in this blog. 

  • S&P 500 BREAKDOWN: A 12% S&P 500 breakdown in June.
  • S&P 500 OVERSOLD REVERSAL: The subsequent heavily oversold S&P 500 rally that followed, +8% in 6 days.
  • ENERGY SECTOR TOP: The top in the energy sector, which I sold into. The sector is -29% since my alert.
  • SHORT ENERGY: To my inverse energy sector position in (ERY), which went +17% in 2 days.
  • 75-BASIS POINT FED RATE HIKE: To expect a 75-basis point Fed rate hike on June 15, when the market priced it at 5% odds.
  • HIGH JUNE CPI: To expect June CPI to come in above expectations, while most of the media and social media was predicting that inflation had already peaked.
  • CRUDE OIL TOP: To expect the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks to target crude oil demand through aggressive rate hikes. Crude oil is -26% over the last 6 weeks.
  • CPI WEEK VOLATILITY BREAKOUT: To be prepared for sharp, over 5% volatility moves, in most major markets and indices during CPI week, July 11.
  • ARKK ETF MAJOR NEAR-TERM LOW:  From May 11 to May 19, I alerted subscribers to look for a major oversold low in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). (ARKK) put in a major near-term low, on May 14.
  • MEGA CAP TECH RALLY: On May 21, I told our subscribers to expect an oversold rally in mega cap tech leaders. This was followed by a +14% rally in Apple (AAPL) and a +27% move in Amazon (AMZN).

1. On June 9, with the S&P 500 index at 4090.85, I told subscribers to expect a range breakout in the next week. The S&P 500 broke down later that day, and three trading days later it was down to 3705.68, and 6 days later at 3636, down over 12% since my alert.


2.On June 12 and June 13, I told our subscribers that S&P 500 market internals were at their second most oversold level since March 2020 and to expect a sharp reversal after that week’s Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting on June 15.

I alerted to look for key support at SPX 3650. SPX made the near-term low at 3636.


The S&P 500 put in a major near-term low on June 17, only 14 points below my 3650 support level, and had a sharp +8.4% rally over the next 6 days.

3. On June 8 and June 9, I told our subscribers that the energy sector and leaders Exxon Mobil (XOM) were over-extended and that it was a good level to book gains at.

June 8 is the recent near-term top in the energy sector and Exxon (XOM). Energy sector ETF (XLE) dropped 29% over the next 5 weeks.

Also, in this post, May CPI, reported in June, came in high, as I projected, and led to double digit drawdowns in SPY and QQQ, which we avoided.


(XOM) at 104.71 in the post below. The top was later that day at 105.57


4. Starting in May and into June 10, I told subscribers that a 75-basis point rate hike from the FOMC would be well-received by the markets.
At that time, the Fed Funds futures market was pricing in only a 5.6% probability of a 75-basis point hike for their June 15 meeting.
On June 15, the FOMC raised interest rates, by 75-basis points.


5. On July 1, I took a new long position in 2x Inverse Energy ETF (ERY) just under $51. Two days later it traded to $60, +17.6%.

6. On July 6, when many Wall Street firms and many in the media and on social media were predicting that inflation had ‘peaked’ I alerted subscribers that CPI would likely come in higher than projected. I emphasized this with our members over the next week so that they could be positioned properly. CPI was reported on June 13, at 9.1%.

7. On July 9, I told subscribers to expect high volatility and at least 5% ranges in the major indices and markets during CPI week.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trade in a 4.7% range last week.
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) had a 5.5% range.
Crude oil ETF (USO), an 11.4% range.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), an 11.0% range.
10-year UST bond yields, (TNX), had a 6.9% range. 

8. From May 11 to May 19, I alerted subscribers to look for a major oversold low in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). (ARKK) put in a major near-term low, for now, on May 14.

9. On May 21, I told our subscribers to expect an oversold rally in mega cap tech leaders. This was followed by a +14% rally in Apple (AAPL) and a +27% move in Amazon (AMZN).


10. A FEW OTHER TIMELY MARKETS CALLS AND ALERTS, OVER THE LAST 90-DAYS.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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