Weekly Trend Report 12/29/19

BLUE CHIP WEEKLY TREND REPORT
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2019

WEEKLY ACTIVITY AND CLOSING PRICES ON 12/27/19 FOR CORE MACRO MARKETS

SYMBOL     Market Weekly change Weekly Closing Price Weekly % Change
$SPX S & P 500 + 18.80 3240.02 + .58%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 + 2.36 213.61 + 1.12%
EEM Emerging Markets +  .46 45.07 + 1.03%
VGK Europe +  .74 58.65 + 1.28%
$TNX 10-year US Treasury yields – .43 1.874 – 2.24%
TLT 20+ Year UST ETF + .67 137.33 + .49%
$USD US Dollar index – .73 96.55 – .75%
$GOLD Gold + 37.320 1518.10 + 2.51%
GDX Gold Miners + 1.93 28.87 + 7.17%
$WTIC WTI Crude oil + 1.28 61.72 + 2.12%

CORE MARKETS TECHNICAL COMMENTARY & TREND ANALYSIS
The S & P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 all made new all-time highs this past week. Emerging Markets closed at a 20-month high, and Europe had it’s second highest weekly close on record. These are all technically bullish price signals. In the shorter-term, many of these markets are at the higher end of their daily momentum ranges, and a pullback is always possible, but the longer-term trends are technically bullish here in these markets. I have moved my target cash allocation up to 10-15% from 0% recently and from -25% on 10/06/19. This is not a broad-based market call, but it is a risk adjustment and  profit scaling move.

Gold broke out to an 18-week closing high, and is over the key $1500 level, a bullish signal. Gold Miners, GDX, was up 7.17% on the week, to a 20-week closing high. WTI Crude oil closed at a 32-week high, and also recently had a bullish 10/40 week moving average cross.

U.S. Treasuries and 10-year yields continue to be neutral for my time frame, while yields have a slight upward bias and bonds, TLT, have a slight downward bias. 2.00% is still the key overhead level, and 1.50% below.

My technical view on equity indices continues to be bullish with a focus on technology, healthcare, banks and brokers, metals and mining, energy services, and China.  

Gold and miners have had bullish breakouts and are buyable here and on pullbacks. I am still neutral on bonds and interest rate sensitive industries.  I am avoiding Utilities, REITs, staples and any momentum tech names in downtrends below the 200-day moving average.

SPX WEEKLY
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EMERGING MARKETS WEEKLY (EEM)
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GOLD MINERS WEEKLY (GDX)
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US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) is weakening, at a 23-week closing low, and three consecutive closes below the 40-week moving average, the longest streak below the 40-week MA since April 2018.
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 THIS WEEK’S “BLUE CHIP TOP 50” RANKED LARGE CAP STOCKS
(listed by industry technical momentum rank and market cap)

QQQ NASDAQ 100
AAPL Apple
MSFT Microsoft
GOOGL Google
AMZN Amazon
FB Facebook
XLV HEALTHCARE
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
UNH United Healthcare
MRK Merck
ABT Abbot Labs
BMY Bristol-Myers
AMGN Amgen
EEM EMERGING MARKETS
BABA AliBaba
TCEHY Tencent
JD JD.com
VGK EUROPE
NVS Novartis
ACN Accenture
AZN AstraZeneca
CS Credit Suisse
IGV SOFTWARE
ADBE Adobe
NOW ServiceNow
SHOP Shopify
PAYC Paycom
SMH SEMICONDUCTORS
INTC Intel
NVDA Nvidia
MU Micron
AMAT Applied Materials
AMD Advanced Micro
GDX GOLD MINERS
NEM Newmont Goldcorp
GOLD Barrick Gold
FNV Franco-Nevada
XLF FINANCIALS
JPM JP Morgan Chase
V Visa
BAC Bank of America
PYPL Paypal
GS Goldman Sachs
XLE ENERGY
COP Conoco Phillips
SLB Schlumberger
VLO Valero
HAL Halliburton
XME METALS & MINING
VALE Vale do Rio
FCX Freeport-McMoRan
MT Arcelor Mittal
XLY CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
WMT Wal-Mart
DIS Walt Disney
HD Home Depot
NKE Nike
SBUX Starbucks
XLI INDUSTRIALS
UTX United Technologies
HON Honeywell
GE General Electric

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