Weekly Trend Report, 1/19/25 (Sample)

Weekly Markets Video: https://bit.ly/BCDWeeklyVideo11925

Top 25 list: https://bit.ly/WeeklyTop25List11925
ETF Focus list: https://bit.ly/WeeklyETFFocusList11925
Lower Volatility Sectors list: https://bit.ly/WeeklyLowVolList11925
High Beta List: https://bit.ly/HighBetaList11925

Core Artificial Intelligence (AI) Focus Group, current today, 1/19/25, updated on 12/22/24:  https://bit.ly/BCDCoreAITop12TrakingList
(This is a tracking group and watchlist only. Not all charts are considered actionable at all times).

Frequently used terms:
(SPX): S&P 500 Index
(NDX): Nasdaq 100 Index
(INDU) Dow Jones Industrial Average
(TNX): CBOE 10-year US Treasury Yield
(FOMC): Federal Open Market Committee, “The Fed”
(DMA/SMA): Daily Moving Average

WEEKLY SUMMARY, 1/19/25

Weekly Chart Trends: 

SPX/NDX: Bullish, weekly uptrend intact.
Bonds:  Neutral to bearish.
Gold: Bullish, weekly uptrend.
Crude oil: Neutral/improving.
Bitcoin: Bullish, weekly uptrend.
——
CORE MARKETS OVERVIEW

• This was a bullish week for the S&P 500 index (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 index (NDX), with both up by over 2.8% on the week.
  
• 87% of SPX stocks and 85% of NDX stocks were higher for the week. 
• I attribute this to four key factors:
  – The December CPI report was well received. Core CPI was down vs November for both the month-over-month and year-over-year time frames. It is one thing to beat the forecast, but if the forecast is still higher vs the prior month, than there is no real progress. To come in lower vs the prior month does show progress.
  – 10-year US Treasury yields (TNX) were – 6.9 basis points on the week and are -20.0 basis point since the intraweek high. The lower CPI readings led to this constructive pullback in yields. Higher yields have recently been a bearish headwind for stocks.
  – Corporate earnings reports from financial sector majors JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) were all well received. Similar with tech sector and AI bellwether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
  – The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey had the most bearish reading since the November 2023 market lows. The AAII survey, at the extremes, is considered a reliable contrarian indicator. Post here
  – SPX breadth was very strong all week. Over 5 days this week, the average daily upside breadth was 72%. All 5 days were up by 68% or more. This is a sign of bullish accumulation by fund managers. Post here

EQUITIES

• This was a bullish week overall, as outlined above. There are risks, as detailed below, but this looks to be at least a tradeable low, if not more.
  
• Markets are going to focus now on earnings reports, with over 40% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report over the next three weeks. That number will probably move higher as earnings dates are confirmed.
  
• Our top ranked sectors or industry groups: financials (big banks and brokers), technology (Artificial Intelligence (AI) related), energy (natural gas and pipelines), utilities (nuclear and independent power producers).
  
• Top ranked higher-beta groups: Bitcoin and related stocks.
  

BONDS AND RATES

• Treasury bonds (TLT) are still in a long-term downtrend. They may have found a longer-term floor right now, but the chart is not on our but list to the current downtrend.
• 10-year UST yields (TNX) pulled back on the week, as outlined above, but we expect the trading range to be 4.25%-5.00% for the first quarter of 2025.

COMMODITIES

• Gold remains buy rated.
• Crude oil is neutral on the weekly trend, but has been outperforming recently.
• Natural gas remains rated “speculative buy”.

FOMC/THE FED

• We expect the Fed to stay on hold for the first quarter of 2025, with no changes in the overnight rate.
• At the January 29 FOMC press conference, we expect Jerome Powell to stay on the “data dependent” message with no change in views.
• Labor market strength continues, jobless claims are low and the economy shows no signs of weakness, so there is no catalyst to cut rates here.
• The Fed funds futures market is pricing in72.4% odds of no rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. Link here:

INFLATION

• Inflation remains sticky, but there was slight progress last week with Core CPI down from November.
  
• Inflation still looks too high however to warrant a rate cut currently.

BITCOIN

• We remain bullish here and expect new highs within the next few weeks.
  

BIGGEST RISKS TO OUR CURRENT VIEWS

• A major earnings miss or series of misses.
  
• A sharp upside reversal in yields.

Key watch points:

• • 1/ Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar.
  • 2/ Quarterly corporate earnings reports.
  • 3/ Incoming inflation, jobs and economic data.

The first quarter of the first year of the U.S. Presidential cycle is often weak, but higher, below. Not all stocks and sectors will follow the index.
– Seasonality is never a guarantee or a prediction. Current charts are always the best guide.
– First posted here 1/5/25.
Source: Ryan Detrick/Carson Research

INDEX MCCLELLAN OSCILLATORS
– The SPX oscillator is near the high end of the daily range, but not anything that I view as relevant overall.

CORE MACRO MARKETS, WEEKLY RECAP

BLUE CHIP DAILY MARKET/SECTOR OVERVIEW, 1/19/25
These are intermediate-term (2-4 month) trend views, not short-term market calls. Short-term volatility and/or pullbacks are possible.
Top ranked individual stock ideas are posted to our weekly focus lists, (Top 25, Low Volatility, High Beta, ETF).
BUY/ACCUMULATE is considered constructive here or on standard pullbacks.
HOLD/ADD is positive.
NEUTRAL is no bias either direction.
“Confidence rank” 1 = high, 2 = average, 3 = neutral

U.S. KEY ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Full calendar, source: U.S. Economic Calendar – MarketWatch

OPEN POSITIONS RECAP:

• Tracking page: Open Positions – Blue Chip Daily Trend Report
• Cash: ~4%.
• Target cash allocation is 1-3%.
  

THIS WEEK’S TOP 25 LIST: 

• Standard stop losses are 8%-12%.
• These charts are selected based on their current trends, not as an overall market call.
• Each chart is ranked on a stand-alone basis. This is not a suggested model portfolio.
• The charts are listed below by daily RSI.
• This list is not screened for earnings dates. Earnings dates should be verified. 
• An asterisk (*) is considered an extended chart or potentially higher volatility, at time of posting.
• Charts link: https://bit.ly/WeeklyTop25List11925
  JBL, BSX, GEV* JPM, HWM, WFC, MTZ, MPLX, CAH, MS, WMB, ENB, WSM, MRVL, ANET, VST*, SE, DAL, GOOGL., SPOT, TSM, AMZN, TSLA*, META, PLTR*
  

THIS WEEK’S ETF FOCUS LIST

• Standard stop losses are 8-10%.
• These charts are selected based on their current trends. This is not a short-term market call.
• All charts are subject to pullbacks or higher volatility at any time.
• Each chart is ranked on a stand-alone basis. This is not a suggested model portfolio. There is often sector overlap.
• The charts are listed below by daily RSI.
• An asterisk (*) is considered an extended chart, or potentially higher volatility, at time of posting. Two asterisks (**) is highest volatility/speculative.
• Any chart that closes below the 50-dma is considered under review.
  Charts link: https://bit.ly/WeeklyETFFocusList11925
  AMLP, UTES, KBWB, XLI, SMH, GLD, SPY, QQQ, IWM
  High-volatility/or speculative: IBIT, WGMI
  

WEEKLY LOWER-VOLATILITY SECTORS LIST:

• Standard stop losses are 10%.
• Listed by daily RSI
• These charts are selected based on their current trends, not as an overall market call.
• Based on the stand-alone charts, not as a model portfolio
• (*) = extended chart or higher volatility possible/earnings.
• Not screened for earnings dates. Earnings dates should be verified. Any chart posted within 20 days or less, ahead of earnings, is considered a watch-list chart.
• Any chart that closes below the 50-dma is considered under review.
• Charts: https://bit.ly/WeeklyLowVolList11925
  ETR, BSX, CAH, HSBC, BK, PRMB, PODD, BJ, WMT
  

 WEEKLY HIGH-BETA and SMALL CAP LIST:

S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX)
Weekly trend rating: Buy/accumulate.
10-week MA trend rating: Uptrend.
40-week MA Trend Rating: Uptrend.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)
Weekly trend rating: Buy/accumulate.
10-week MA trend rating: Uptrend.
40-week MA Trend Rating: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)
Weekly trend rating: Buy/accumulate.
10-week MA trend rating:  Neutral.
40-week MA trend rating: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 (small caps) ETF (IWM)
Weekly trend rating: Accumulate.
10-week MA trend rating: Down.
40-week MA trend rating: Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds, 20+ Year ETF (TLT)
Weekly trend rating: Avoid. This chart may have found a tradeable low, but the primary trend is down.
40-week MA trend rating: flat.
10-week MA trend rating: down.

CBOE 10-Year US Treasury Yield (TNX)
Weekly trend rating: Up.
The near-term trading range is 4.50-4.80.
40-week MA trend rating: flat.
10-week MA trend rating: up.

WTI CRUDE OIL (WTI)
Weekly trend rating: Neutral/improving.
40-week MA trend rating: down.
10-week MA trend rating: up.

GOLD
Weekly trend rating: Buy.
40-week MA trend rating: uptrend.
10-week MA trend rating: down.

BITCOIN
Weekly trend rating: Buy/accumulate.
40-week MA trend rating: uptrend.
10-week MA trend rating: up.
This is a very high volatility/speculative market.

COMMODITIES, TRACKING GROUP

• Gold is rated buy.
• Crude oil is rated neutral/improving.
• Natural gas is a high volatility chart, rated speculative buy.

Inflation – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Real-Time inflation forecast, below:
inflation Nowcasting (clevelandfed.org)

Fed Funds futures, from the CME Website, below.
Link: CME FedWatch Tool – CME Group

ADDITIONAL CHARTS COVERED IN TODAY’S VIDEO:

Have a great week,

Larry Tentarelli
Chief Technical Strategist and Founder
Blue Chip Daily Trend Report
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