Today’s Monthly technical update is a follow up to our last Monthly update, sent on 11/5/22.
- In our 11/5/22 technical update, we confirmed that the recent S&P 500 index (SPX) rally attempt was intact, as long as (SPX) held over 3650.
- (SPX) closed on 11/4/22 at 3770.55.
- (SPX) closed this past Friday, 12/2/22 at 4071.70, or +7.9% from our 11/5 technical update.
Our view here remains that the (SPX) rally is still intact currently, as long as it holds over 3900 on a closing basis. Commentary below.
Our technical base case:
- (SPX) is making a series of higher highs and higher lows since the 10/13 lows.
- The 20, 50 and 100-sma have all turned up, and (SPX) closed over the 200-sma for the first time since April 2022.
- Wednesday’s volume is the highest upside volume day since the mid-June tactical low.
- 10-year UST bond yields (TNX) and US Dollar Index (USD) have both rolled over recently, which has been a benefit to (SPX) as well.
- Our year-end target range has moved up to 4100-4300, from the 3800-3900 target set on 10/17/22.
- There are 4 key risks to this year-end target range, which I have shared with members over the last 4 weeks. These are available on the members website.
- We also recently started new positions in US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and the precious metals sector.
- In our technical view, both groups could be set to out-perform in 2023.
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