With Semiconductor stocks and ETFs making new all-time highs over the last few days, we wanted to reflect on the technical path here. The following Blog is a recap of our technical commentary on Twitter over the last 6 months, since the October market lows. As always, no predictions or market calls, just price and trend analysis all the way up.
Disclosure: At the time of this Blog, I am long $AMD, $NVDA and $SMH.
Charts > narratives.
The current narrative is that big money is expecting a growth slowdown/downturn.
Semis are +39% YTD and 2% off highs. Home construction +50% ytd and on the highs. Semis, dishwashers and cinder blocks leading is a bullish signal for now. $SMH $ITB— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 19, 2019
Semis $SMH still one of my favorite groups here, continues to be buyable on pullbacks:$NVDA $AMAT $TXN are top ideas pic.twitter.com/gZPvK1SzB0
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 20, 2019
More strength in semis today with $AMD $MU leading. $AMD +17% since 200sma test a few weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/AeG4L6VYYp
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 21, 2019
This week's Top Technical Momentum List
15 industries/groups
Over $10B mkt cap
Top 3 stocks per grouphttps://t.co/7Sc7jE6NjJ pic.twitter.com/5OteIiL7tw— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 20, 2019
Some weakness in broader tech today. Many tech names and ETFs have been trading at the higher end of their range. Some consolidation could be expected. Observation only. Core tech names today. I’m looking at $MSFT $NVDA on any meaningful pullback. pic.twitter.com/5xinVUvOm9
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 22, 2019
$SMH holding up. Three higher lows. 107. 109. 115. Consolidating nicely. pic.twitter.com/iPz7eIP7eP
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 23, 2019
cashed out the last piece of $QQQ swing for a win. added $SMH w/ a trailer below the 200d and half sized $NVDA.$NVDA ER on 11/14. both in LT trend acct and holding $QQQ there as well. I expect ER volatility, that's what stops are for, but LT trend still very strong in semis.
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 24, 2019
$NVDA is the strongest of my core semis names $MU another semi trending up LT and over the rising 200sma – $LRCX $STM $TSM $KLAC strong as well – there are likely pullbacks, but in the LT uptrend for now pic.twitter.com/udoTkp3VSG
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 24, 2019
Basic trend analysis:
FANG ETF $FDN
< 200sma
< declining 50 & 100sma
< massive overhead between 135/142$QQQ
>200sma
> support in 182/186 range$SMH
uptrend
>over key MAs
>support
near highs
trading the strongest trend from the long side is the higher percentage trade. pic.twitter.com/APB8qqGN2u— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 24, 2019
Today's top 5 focus tech RSI$AAPL and semis $LRCX $STM $NVDA $AMAT pic.twitter.com/Cq6LqBrqTV
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 24, 2019
My top 5 technically ranked Core ETFs $ITB $XHB $XLF $SMH $QQQ
Financials had a big jump this week in the list. pic.twitter.com/CSoTOHvBuP— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 26, 2019
Current positions, all long:$ABT $AMD $ANSS $ASHR $EQIX $FB $GLD $ITB $MAS $MRK $NVDA $QQQ $SMH $TLT $TMF $XLRE $XLU pic.twitter.com/2k9vC3R6YK
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 26, 2019
$NVDA
> $200 and near 52 week high pic.twitter.com/Yb6b1Zg1lB— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 28, 2019
Top core tech by RSI, semis still leading
top 6$LRCX $INTC $STM $CDW $ROKU $NVDA pic.twitter.com/rXiDnILOFp— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 31, 2019
Nice low vol pullback in $SMH pic.twitter.com/l8cC210rwO
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 31, 2019
Top Technically ranked ETFs
All markets
Intermediate-term time frame
updated 11/02/19
disclaimer: https://t.co/7Sc7jE6NjJ pic.twitter.com/9baQ4ANhDa— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 3, 2019
my ETF intermediate term momentum rankings, end of week: Japan, semis, tech at the top, REITs and USTs at the bottom. Strong groups = strong stocks. pic.twitter.com/y5Oyty3u5R
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 10, 2019
Semis are the top Core group on my screen , followed by global financials. $AMD $NVDA $INTC $SMH breakouts$BAC $JPM $PNC $XLF breakouts $CS $DB $SCGLY $UBS $EUFN LT reversals
EMs and China improving$KHC and $RAD are also interesting long-term reversal charts.— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 11, 2019
This week's Technical Overview
Blog: https://t.co/Y05zFUDaJ1
Disclaimer: https://t.co/7Sc7jE6NjJ
Bullish on semis, value, international, EM, basic industries, steel & copper, and global financials.
Neutral/bearish: Momentum tech breakdowns, defensives, Utes, REITs, Gold & miners pic.twitter.com/K8c0astJMW— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 11, 2019
$AMD continues to new highs
Semis continue the lead. pic.twitter.com/j83zCEk1kP— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 13, 2019
This morning's
Global Trend Reporthttps://t.co/Y05zFUDaJ1$JPM $MA $V $XLF $AMAT $AMD $NVDA $MU $SMH pic.twitter.com/k5NhK3uE1S— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 15, 2019
$NVDA some after ER weakness. Holding the 20sma. The 50sma at 190 is key support on any further pullback. pic.twitter.com/QBaqehqbQa
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 15, 2019
$MU setting up for higher. pic.twitter.com/KHiweoPBYJ
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 16, 2019
Top 10 Core ETF's, ranked by price momentum, coming in to the week:$SMH$XLK$EWJ$XLV$SPY$QQQ$XLI$VGK $EFA$XLF pic.twitter.com/A72J19oT3g
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 18, 2019
$NVDA bullish action off $200 to new 52w high and a solid uptrend. pic.twitter.com/aribmXx0Mg
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 18, 2019
One of my top names here. $NVDA
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 20, 2019
Early 4% breakout in $NVDA. Holding the 20sma uptrend. pic.twitter.com/R1G8aMmhwQ
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 25, 2019
$SMH looking for higher after the 130 test. pic.twitter.com/bJM1MZvR1p
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 25, 2019
$SMH looking for higher after the 130 test. pic.twitter.com/bJM1MZvR1p
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) November 25, 2019
$INTC setting up very well here. Oversold and turning up above the rising 50sma. pic.twitter.com/w6fmSxnvDq
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 6, 2019
Chart of the Day$INTC
56.81
oversold above the rising 50sma and daily momentum turning back up
key support @ 52-53
12% stop = 49.99 pic.twitter.com/oD0pIL0IxA— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 9, 2019
Solid uptrend in $NVDA
$200 has held twice and the rising 50sma is just over 201. pic.twitter.com/rAugqdYbQ2— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 10, 2019
$SMH
new highs – bullish signal for the markets pic.twitter.com/CztoIeejSL— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 11, 2019
Chart of the Day$SMH $AMAT
Semis continue to be a top focus group, buyable on pullbacks. $SMH made a new all-time high yesterday and $AMAT broke out above all key MAs as well, both after bullish rising 50 sma tests. pic.twitter.com/aQdARp6TBL— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 12, 2019
Massive breakouts across the board today. New highs in core names: (by volume)
ETFs$SPY $XLF $EFA $IWM $XLK $XLV $SMH $EZU
NYSE$BAC $BABA $BMY $C $TSM $JPM $MS $MRK $NKE $DHI $STM $MAS $UNH $GS
Nasdaq$AMD $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA pic.twitter.com/QXlDESOygL— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 13, 2019
Open Positions (start of week)$ABT $AMD $AMZN $BABA $BAC $CS $FB $GE $HAL $HL $MAS $MT $NVDA $SHOP $X$QQQ $SMH $XME $ITB $XOP
All long. pic.twitter.com/5aQ04miyD0
— Blue Chip Daily Trend Report (@BlueChipDailyTR) December 16, 2019
Major strength in semis and energy today. Bullish action. $SMH $XOP $HAL $AMD $MU. Semis continue to lead the way and work for both cyclical and growth traders.
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 16, 2019
$SMH
New all-time high in this top focus sector.
Many breakouts in the group as well.$AMAT $AMD $MU $NVDA $TSM are core names.Also, many 5G stocks in the group. Still maintain a buy/accumulate rating. pic.twitter.com/X6DKOd5LhK
— Blue Chip Daily Trend Report (@BlueChipDailyTR) December 17, 2019
$SMH at new highs and $AMD $NVDA $MU all at 52w highs. Staying in big winners means not getting shaken out by third party opinions, the media, or when half of FinTwit calls another top every time there’s a red tick on the screen. https://t.co/WhRMU2T2nn
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 20, 2019
Semis $SMH
Continuing to ride the 50sma higher after a much needed consolidation. $AMAT $AMD $NVDA $MU are focus names. pic.twitter.com/auzaJq7dKu— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) December 11, 2019
Semis still on a massive roll $SOX riding the 20 & 50-sma in a strong uptrend
Buyable all the way on pullbacks and breakouts, until the trend stops working$SMH $AMD $AMAT $INTC $NVDA $MU#trendfollowing pic.twitter.com/bBLyhgEhY3— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) January 7, 2020
$MU +19% from here at 58.27, $50 was the key breakout. https://t.co/0xYUqtbJIC pic.twitter.com/ZWtUwcWvLj
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) January 8, 2020
