1/23/26
MACRO OVERVIEW
1. EQUITIES:
The S&P 500 index (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) remain in buyable weekly uptrends over their rising 10-week moving averages, but we are seeing much more strength outside of the index level, which is weighted toward mega cap growth.
We monitor 90 diversified, global ETFs on a daily basis. YTD S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) rank #70 and #71 in performance, which means that most of the world and quite a few sectors are outperforming vs the cap weighted indices.
We believe this is due to the current Fed rate cutting cycle that we are in – which is proving ample liquidity for markets.
Cyclical charts in industrials, energy, financials and small caps have all broken out to new highs. All are economically sensitive and are sending a message that the equity markets expect a string economy in 2026.
Our current top ranked sectors and industries are:
– Technology and Artificial Intelligence related (semiconductors and computer hardware/memory)
– Materials + Metals and miners.
– Energy sector + nuclear
– Industrials (especially aerospace and defense and power generation)
– Global banks and brokers (bank with exposure to credit cards are under pressure in the near term due to credit card cap rate headlines).
– Consumer discretionary (especially retailers)
– International (especially Europe and Latin America)
2. BONDS AND RATES
– The Fed funds futures market is forecasting the next rate cut from the Fed at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting. Link here.
– This forecast is subject to change quickly, based on incoming economy data, and incoming payrolls and inflation data.
– Inflation is currently above the Fed target of 2.0%, with annual CPI reported last week at 2.7%. Above forecast inflation is still keeping a cap of Fed rate cuts. Also, the labor market is resilient, with payrolls data above forecast and weekly jobless claims inline.
– Based on above target inflation and a strong labor market, we also expect the Fed to stay on hold for the next few months, unless there is some type of major outlier data.
3. COMMODITIES
– We remain bullish on gold, silver, copper and associated miners.
– Metals have all made new record highs recently, we believe due to global fiscal concerns, AI datacenter demand and ample liquidity.
– Crude oil itself has been in a downtrend over the past 12 months, but has held support in the $55 range. We are more bullish on energy sector stocks including Exxon Mobil (XOM) and oil services names Haliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger. (SLB)
Other Select stock ideas:
NEWMONT CORP (NEM) remains a favorite idea.
– Our first buy here was 8/22/25 and our most recent buy was 12/18/25.
– Breakout uptrend over 5 rising daily MAs with a bullish macro backdrop, as noted above.
We have a long position here from 70.79.
3. TECH SECTOR
– Our new buys this year here are Intel (INTC) and Western Digital (WDC).
– There has been a major rotation over the past few weeks and into 2026 into semiconductors equipment stocks and computer hardware/memory.
– Top ranked buyable ideas here are INTC, WDC, Sandisk (SNDK), Micron (MU), Seagate Technology (STX), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML (ASML) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
– Software stocks have sold off sharply on concerns that AI will erode their business models. We have a small long position in Palantir (PLTR) from September 2024 but no new buys over the past few months.
WESTERN DIGITAL (WDC)
– WDC is in a breakout uptrend and is buyable here and on pullbacks over 220.
– Confirmed uptrend over 5 rising daily moving averages in a very bullish hardware sector.
WDC is a major supplier of high capacity hard disk drives (HDD) which are key for AI infrastructure buildout and for the massive data centers used to train and operate artificial intelligence models.
WDC has ~62% of the HDD market and STX has ~38%.
(We have a long position here from 202.64).
ALPHABET (GOOG)
Our favorite Mag 7 stock and current long position, from ~317.
Their TPU’s have become a viable competitor to Nvidia (NVDA) GPU’s. We hold both stocks with GOOG as our technically top ranked Mag 7 stock, trading over 5 rising daily moving averages and just below new all-time highs.
We have a long position from ~317.
VANECK URANIUM NUCLEAR ENERGY ETF ((NLR)
We have a recent long position here from 147.86.
NLR is in an uptrend over 5 rising daily moving averages with multiple recent bullish daily moving average crosses.
After a recent pullback from new highs this has turned up and this is an AI-adjacent theme.
Uranium and nuclear power are key fuel sources for the AI data center buildout.
Buyable here and on pullbacks.
Top 10 positions include Cameco (CCJ), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) and Oklo (OKLO).
DISCLOSURES:
We have long positions in XOM, NEM, WDC, INTC, GOOG and NLR.