Original tweet: https://twitter.com/LMT978/status/1243424472813559810
Recently we hear many discussions online debating if the market has ‘made a low or not’. The most frequent comparison that I hear is a comparison to the 2008 Bear Market in the S&P 500, which officially made it’s final low in March of 2009. As I saw these debates, I asked myself how relevant to stock performance is the index timing?
In 2008, 196 current S&P 500 components, 39.2%, put in a low in Q4 2008, long before the S&P bottomed in March of 2009.
What I found, is that it is important to remember that it is a “market of stocks”, and that regardless of what the broad market does, individual stocks need to be managed off of their own chart. Stock selection and individual chart analysis has much more bearing on overall performance than the index itself.
All of this time focused on trying to predict if the market has bottomed or not, isn’t as relevant to actual stock performance as it is to analyze the individual company stock chart itself.
1. Here is a full list of all 196 S&P 500 components that put in the low in Q4 2008, well ahead of the March 2009 “market bottom”,
2. A link to the first 100 charts, as that is all that Stockcharts.com will allow on a ‘Public share” and
Stockcharts.com public share: https://stockcharts.com/public/1973165/tenpp
3. A brief video of a scroll through each chart from 2008/2009.
VIDEO OF ALL 196 CHARTS: https://zoom.us/rec/share/xvdLPoPo6GNOZ43StX_4YJQeMb3ET6a8hyga-KELz0s3jit40DNQ67pgoB-uK6p5?startTime=1585288229000
AAP, ABC, ACN, ADI, ADM, ADP, AGN, AIZ, AKAM, ALGN, ALK, ALXN, AMD, AMP, AMT, AMZN, ANTM, AON, APD, APH, ATO, AWKM, AZO
BBY, BDXM, BIIB, BKNG, BKR, BLL, BMY, BR, BSX, BWA
CAG, CAH, CCI, CCL, CDNS, CE, CERN, CF, CHRW, CI, CINF, CL, CME, CMG, CMS, CNP, COO, CPRT, CRM, CTL, CTSH, CTXS, CVS, CXO
DGX, DHI, DHR, DISCA, DISH, DLR, DRE, DRI, DVA,
EFX, EQIX, ES, EW, EXPE
F, FFIV, FIS, FISV, FLS, FMC, FTI
GILD, GLW, GOOGL, GPS, GRMN, GS, GWW
HAL, HD, HES, HFC, HON, HP, HRL, HSIC
IBM, ICE, IDXX, IFF, INCY, INTC, INTU, IPG, IRM, IVZ
KLAC, KMX, KSS
LEN, LH, LIN, LKQ, LNC, LRCX
M, MA, MAR, MCD, MCK, MCO, MKC, MKTX, MLM, MNST, MO, MOS, MRO, MS, MSCI, MU, MXIM, MYL
NBL, NDAQ, NEE, NEM, NFLX, NLOK, NOC, NOV, NRG, NTAP, NTRS, NUE, NVDA
ODFL, ORLY, OXY
PBCT, PEAK, PEG, PHM, PLD, PVH, PWR
RE, RL, RMD, ROL, ROP, ROST
SBAC, SBUX, SLG, SNPS, SPG, SRE, STZ, SWKS
T, TDG, TIFTJX, TRV, TSN, TXN
VFC, VIAC, VLO, VRSN, VRTX, VTR, VZ
WBA, WDC, WEC, WRB
XEL, XLNX, XOM