April 11, 2018
At 1360, Gold is currently near the top of it’s 4 year range. At 66.82, Crude Oil (WTI) is at it’s highest level since December of 2014. Some crude oil names, like Valero (VLO) have already made new all-time highs, while Majors such as Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM) struggle just over, or below their 200 day moving averages.
Crude oil has already broken out, and Gold needs to clear 1400 to breakout to levels not seen since 2013. What I focus on, as a price based technical trader, is moving averages, and new high breakouts. While the S & P 500 is trying to stay above it’s 200 day moving average, oil names are breaking out, select gold names are improving, and some industrial metals names are also trending higher. Gold has failed 3 times in the last 4 years between 1362 and 1392, just over where it is now. I am staying focused on this level to see if Gold can finally clear the 1400 level and potentially break higher, or fails again at this key level.
Crude oil has been trending higher since it cleared it’s 200 day moving average in late September/early October of 2017 and has held it’s rising 100 day moving average the entire move higher.
Meanwhile, in other metals space, Platinum, Palladium, Copper, and Silver are all struggling vs their 200 day moving averages, while some diversified mining names are trending hear near breakout levels.
The question that remains to be seen is do these current trends continue higher, and possibly lead into a multi year uptrend, or is this the end of the run? Price and moving averages will guide the way. I am going to continue to focus on stronger stocks in stronger industries and/or sectors and let price determine my next step.
