Disclaimers:
- Full disclaimer and disclosures at the bottom of the report.
- This report and video are for general educational and informational purposes only.
- This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities and this is not investment advice. These are opinions only.
- Consult a financial advisor and do your own due diligence and research.
- These are our views as of 12/18/22. If the price data and/or fundamental data changes drastically, our views could change as well, at any time, with no notice.
- I share my updated daily views on our Membership website.
- Any or all of these ideas can pullback or decline at any time – markets move quickly. These are potentially longer-term (2023) trends that could take time to develop.
Base Case Views:
1. We expect an economic slowdown in 2023 in the U.S., which could develop into a recession, but a recession is not our prediction currently. As a result, we expect lower bond yields and a lower U.S. Dollar.
- In an attempt to bring down 40-year high inflation (CPI), the Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee (FOMC) has had to rate interest rates in 2022 from effectively zero to 4.25 to 450 currently.
- We believe that this rapid rise in rates will have a lagged, but slowing effect on the U.S. economy, and corporate earnings, which will start to appear in 2023. The exact timing is unknown, as the labor market data is still very strong.
2. We expect volatility to remain high across stock, bond and commodity markets for at least the first half of 2023.
3. We expect that corporate earnings will come down and that the S&P 500 index could test the 2022 lows.
4. We think that higher cash and lower volatility positions could partially offset some of the higher market volatility.
5. We think that any potential pullbacks could create attractive longer-term opportunities for those who are prepared properly.
Top 5 ideas that we will cover:
1. U.S Treasury Bonds
2. Lower-Volatility Sectors
3. The Healthcare Sector
4. Precious Metals & Mining
5. China Reopening
